Tongkun (601233): The performance of polyester leader improved as scheduled, maintaining “buy”
Event: The company released the first quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 116 in the first quarter.
780,000 yuan, +49 a year.
10%; net profit attributable to mother 5.
21 trillion, ten years +4.
Main points: 1.
In Q1 2019, the period will be improved, and a good start will be achieved. From Q1 2017 to Q1 2019, the company will achieve net profit after deductions for non-return to its mothers3.
1.6 billion, 2.
8.4 billion, 5.
5.0 billion, 6.
2.3 billion, 武汉夜网论坛 4.
9.8 billion, 8.
3.8 billion, 11.
2.7 billion, -3.
9.4 billion, 4.
76 ppm, except for the industry-wide surpass in Q4 2018, the overall profitability was maintained.
The first quarter of 2019 achieved a good start, mainly due to increased production capacity and increased sales by 49.
67%, revenue increased by 43.
In Q1 2019, the company respectively achieved production and sales of POY 83.
79 digits / 92.
1993 (15 per year growth.
91%), FDY 27.
78 digits / 26.
49 initially (85 per year).
61%), DTY 18.
11 growth rate / 17.
98 years (20 annual growth.
69%), for a total of 129.
68 budget / 137.
40 initially (26 per year.
However, affected by oil prices, in Q1 2019, POY (7364.
59 yuan / ton, -4.93%), FDY (8107.
48 yuan / ton, -3.
65%), DTY (9113.
93 yuan / ton, -3.
05%)上海夜网论坛 The average sales price excluding tax decreased.
Gross profit margin decreased by 2.
73 perfect to 8.
At the same time, financial expenses increased due to the issuance of convertible bonds.
PTA-polyester bi-elasticity, another Tongkun. With the fourth phase of Hengbang in the second quarter of 2019, the constant optimization fiber POY project was put into production. The company added 90 polyester filaments to 660.
From 2019 to 2020, Hengteng Phase IV will produce 30 indicator green fiber projects with an annual output of 30. Hengchao Company 50 will be called the intelligent super-simulation fiber project, which will continue to optimize the product structure.
At the same time, a planned investment of 16 billion U.S. dollars will be established in Jiangsu Dongyangkou Port for 500 access to PTA, 90 access to FDY, and 150 access to POY.
With the commissioning of various projects, it is expected to create another Tongkun.
The previous judgment on the impact of large-scale production of PX on the industrial chain is gradually being fulfilled. Since March, the price differentials in various segments of the “PX-PTA-polyester” industrial chain have been reflected.
(1) From 2019 to 2020, it is expected that more than 1,000 PX will be put on the market one after another, replacing the current Japanese and South Korean markets. It is expected that PX prices will be reduced and domestic small production capacity will continue to lose competitiveness.
During the expansion period of polyester renewable capacity, the industry concentration has increased. From the perspective of supply and demand, PTA is better than PX in terms of industry structure.
(2) During the period of PX scale expansion (stepped), the cost of PX has dropped, and the current situation of “top-heavy” profit distribution in the industrial chain is expected to change, and PX profit will be profitable downstream.
For PTA, the polyester side is profitable, so don’t be too pessimistic.
The company’s PTA-polyester bielasticity is expected to benefit.
The domestic refining and chemical polyester industry chain has a global competitiveness and maintains the previous point of view. We insist on the profitability of the starting point “refining and chemical industry-PX-PTA-polyester” industry chain and have global competitiveness.
(1) Clothing, food, accommodation, daily necessities, and polyester consumption properties are strong, and the growth rate may decline, but it is related to the strong growth of GPD, and it is not necessary to be too pessimistic.
(2) In 2012-2015, the industry was reshuffled, the backward production capacity was withdrawn, and the polyester giants were re-inserted to expand production. The concentration of the leaders was further increased, which was beneficial to the ecological stability of the industry.
(3) This is one of the leading global manufacturing industries in developing countries, and great companies will be born.
The company’s polyester filament products include more than 1,000 varieties of four major series, including POY, FDY, DTY, and composite yarns, with complete specifications. It is known as the “Wal-Mart” supermarket in the chemical fiber industry. The product decomposition rate has been higher than the industry average for many years.
The company insists on building a pagoda-type enterprise, and the category of polyester filament leader is solid.
At the same time, the company’s shareholding in the Zhejiang Petrochemical Project involved in the large-scale refining and chemical industry, the Group participated in the construction of the cement project, and continued to expand and improve the “refining and chemical-PX-PTA + polyolefin-polyester” overall industrial chain layout.
Earnings forecast and rating predict that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent for 2019-2021 will be 23 respectively.
810,000 yuan, 31.
9.3 billion and 43.
960,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS 1.
31 yuan, 1.
75 yuan and 2.
41 yuan, PE 12.
1X and 6.
Considering that the company insists on building a pagoda-type enterprise, PTA and polyester bi-elasticity, continuously expands and refines the integrated layout of the entire industrial chain of “refining-PX-PTA + polycarbonate-polyester”, has strong anti-risk capabilities, and maintains a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The macro economy is lower than expected, product prices have risen sharply, and the progress of Zhejiang petrochemical projects has fallen short of expectations.