He Ertai (002402) quarterly report comments: Fixed assets and industrial parks continue to grow and put into production. Long-term growth is worth looking forward to.

He Ertai (002402) quarterly report comments: Fixed assets and industrial parks continue to grow and put into production. Long-term growth is worth looking forward to.

On the evening of October 22, the company released the 19Q3 quarterly report: revenue 26.

55 ppm, +38 a year.

8%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

4 ‰, +30 a year.

2%, R & D expenses 1.

2.3 billion, accounting for 4% of revenue.

6%, +92 per year.

47%, operating cash flow2.

900 million, before +353.

12%; single quarter revenue is 0.

920,000 yuan, ten years +33.

63%, net profit attributable to mother 0.

710,000 yuan, +26 for ten years.

25%.

The first three quarters of performance continued to grow at a medium and high speed, mainly due to the increase in reports and customer orders, and the increase in NPE revenue of Sun.

The revenue of the subsidiary Changchang Technology increased, and the advance payment from suppliers increased: ① Notes receivable 2.

12 trillion, +47 a year.

25%, mainly due to the increase in sales revenue of Kunchang Technology, and the bills receivable received increased by 0.

6.8 billion yuan.

② The advance payment was 21 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15 million yuan, which was mainly due to the increase in prepayments of the suppliers by Kunchang Technology.

The company’s convertible bonds were successfully issued, and the second phase of its main business, the Bright Industrial Park, went into operation. Future business growth is worth looking forward to: The company’s convertible bonds were successfully listed on June 28.

A total of 5 convertible bonds were issued at par.

47 ppm (5.47 million sheets) with a term of 6 years and a coupon rate of 0 per year.

4% / 0.

6% / 1% / 1.

5% / 1.

8% / 2%, the funds will be used for the construction of the Yangtze River Delta production and operation base (4/4.

900 million), electronic process automation and big data operation management platform system (0.

8/1.

2.8 billion), smart life big data platform system project (0.

67/2.

02 billion).

(Note: The former is the amount of funds invested by convertible bonds, and a small amount is the amount of the project.) The company’s production line rapid new equipment input and old equipment update: ① Guangming Industrial Park Phase II Q3 production, 1.

The US $ 400 million construction in progress was converted into fixed assets. ② Budget. During the reporting period, the company’s operating scale expanded and production equipment investment increased by 1.

At the same time, it also prepaid funds for production equipment and terminated 19Q3 fixed assets totaling 6.

05 ten percent, +69.

17%; other non-current assets (mainly prepaid production equipment) 61.49 million yuan, +271 per year.

64%; the deferred diabetes coefficient increased by 3.95 million yuan (corresponding to a depreciation of 26.33 million according to a 15% score), which was mainly due to the accelerated upgrading of old equipment. Chang Technology: A domestic leader in analog phased array radar T / R chip components, good performance growth. Active phased array radar is a major military technology development direction for military powers. Microwave millimeter wave RF T / R chip components areIts core components and key technologies.

Kunchang has conquered the core technology of analog phased array radar T / R chip components, making the large-scale promotion of internal active phased array radar a reality: ①Military products: high gross profit margin, market scale breakthrough, has been finalized and applied in batchThe main customers are large enterprises in the field of national aerospace, military institutes and weapons and equipment, which have core competitive advantages in the domestic industry.

②Civilian products: Lichang pays attention to the huge market development potential brought by the Internet of Things and 5G mobile communications, and has already fully laid out and reserved in the corresponding fields. In the future, it will serve the parent company’s Internet of Things and the implementation of artificial intelligence big data high-dimensional strategic layout.

In 2018 the company started with 6.

Completed a cash purchase 杭州桑拿 of 80% equity in Quanchang with 24 ppm consideration. Net profit commitments for 2018-2020 were 0.

51/0.

65/0.

7.9 billion; the acquisition passed the review by the National Defense Technology Agency and was completed on June 1.

In 2016-2018, Qichang had zero revenue.

22/0.

64/1.

30,000 yuan, net profit 0.

04/0.

27/0.

660,000 yuan, 19H1 revenue 1.

30,000 yuan, net profit 0.

5.5 billion, broad prospects for future growth.

Earnings forecast and rating: The company focuses on the production line layout, and the revenue realization may be slightly affected. It will fine-tune the revenue growth rate of 19-21 from 36% / 35% / 33% to 35.

23% / 34.

61% / 32.

72%, revenue was 36.

1/48.

6/64.

500 million, net profit attributable to mother 3.

0/4.

1/5.

500 million, EPS is 0.

35/0.

48/0.

65 yuan, according to the closing price of 12 on October 21.

33 yuan, PE is 35.

5/25.

9/19.

3. Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: adjustment of the company’s production line layout, adjustment of the delivery pace of Jichang products, and risks of exchange rate changes.

Sanan Optoelectronics (600703): LED price reduction is coming to an end 5G third-generation semiconductor accelerates localization

Sanan Optoelectronics (600703): LED price reduction is coming to an end 5G third-generation semiconductor accelerates localization

Event: The monthly revenue of Taiwan-based LED chip manufacturers increased month-on-month, the industry inventory decreased, and Taiwan-based LED chips were close to cash costs.

Comments: Optimistic about the price reduction of LED is coming to an end. As a leader in the LED industry, the company is expanding against the downward trend in the cycle and is expected to further increase its market share.

In terms of integrated circuits, in the context of friction between China and the United States, domestic brands’ supply chains have a strong intention to achieve localization. It is optimistic that the company’s third-generation compound semiconductors will benefit from domestic substitution catalysis and accelerate the replacement of overseas suppliers.

LED prices are coming to an end, and Taiwanese manufacturers ‘revenues have increased sequentially.

We think the LED price reduction is coming to an end, mainly due to the shift in the inventory of domestic LED chip manufacturers, the monthly revenue growth of Taiwanese manufacturers and the near-cash cost of LED chip manufacturing.

(1) Inventory reduction: Taking the four major listed companies (Sanan Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics, Qianzhao Optoelectronics and Dehao Runda) as reference, since 2017Q1, the inventory of major LED chip manufacturers in China has shown an increasing trend.By 27.

37 million to 56 in 2019Q1.

68 ppm, mainly due to large-scale expansion of domestic manufacturers.

In 2019H1, LED chip inventory was replaced for the first time, from 56.

68 percent to 56.

USD 6.7 billion, stopped growing and decreased, mainly because manufacturers reduced operating rates (Hua Can Optoelectronics) or closed factories (Dachau Runda closed the LED factory).

(2) Monthly revenue growth month-on-month: According to the monthly revenue report released by Taiwanese manufacturers, LED chip revenue bottomed in June, reaching its lowest point since February this year.

Since entering July, the revenue of Taiwan-based LED chip makers has bottomed out and has achieved sequential growth for two consecutive months.

In summary, we believe that the downturn of the LED chip industry cycle is nearing its end. We are optimistic that the company, as a leader in LED chips, will benefit from the downward trend of the downturn and increase its market share.

(3) Close to cash cost: According to the quarterly data of Taiwanese manufacturers, since 2017Q4, the profit margin of ebitda for Taiwanese LED chip manufacturers has shown a rapid downward trend. At the bottom of the stage in 2019Q1, an inflection point began to appear, and it rebounded in 2019Q2. The data shows that LED chipsThe company has approached the cost of cash, Ebitda has dropped from a high level to nearly 0%, and manufacturers have limited incentives to reduce prices and expand production.

The integrated circuit business is progressing smoothly, benefiting from domestic alternative catalysis.

Sino-U.S. Trade frictions continue to intensify, and domestic companies headed by Huawei have been targeted by the United States for many times, which has promoted the determination of domestic manufacturers to achieve localization of the supply chain.

The company’s third-generation compound semiconductor business is progressing smoothly, and Sanan Integration, a wholly-owned subsidiary, has obtained certification from qualified suppliers for important domestic customers.

Optimistic about the company’s breakthrough in the RF side, the current RF business HBT, pHEMT foundry process lines have been supplied in batches and have been well received by customers. The products cover 2G-5G mobile phone RF power amplifier WiFi, Internet of Things, routers, communication base station RF signal power amplifiers, satellites.Communication and other market applications.

Investment suggestion: Due to the price competition of LED chips, the previous profit forecast is lowered, and the net profit is expected to reach 32 in 19-21.

70/41.

88/50.

8.9 billion down to 20.

17/31.

03/39.

1.4 billion.

In the future, the company is optimistic that the company will benefit from the end of the price reduction of LED chips, and the leading companies will fully benefit from the price bottoming out. At the same time, it is optimistic that the company’s integrated circuit business will benefit from domestic substitution catalysts, accelerate the replacement of overseas supply chain manufacturers, and maintain an “overweight” rating.

佛山桑拿网 Risk warning: LED chip prices continue to fall, integrated circuits fall short of expectations, inventory declines fall short of expectations

Qixin Group (002301): Enjoy industry dividends and build a one-stop corporate office service platform

Qixin Group (002301): Enjoy industry dividends and build a one-stop corporate office service platform
Investment logic: As an enterprise-level office service platform, the future growth of Qixin Group mainly benefits from: ① Sunshine government procurement and the introduction of e-commerce policies, which are good for the office industry leader. Qixin Group uses a variety of product categories and strong supply chain servicesAbility, rich customer resources, and benefit from recovery; ② The company’s cloud video business enables it to build an enterprise-level office service platform of “hardware + software + services” to meet the needs of enterprise-level office informationization and play a synergistic effect.Under the promotion of industry dividends and the first layout of enterprises, it is expected that the compound revenue growth rate of the company in 2019-2021 will reach 38.8%, the compound growth rate of net profit reached 34.At 6%, business operations have entered a period of rapid development.  Sunlight gathering promotes the development of the office supplies industry.The office supplies industry has a bright future. Since 2015, the state has successively introduced relevant policies to promote the government’s procurement and the e-commerce. State-owned enterprises have also joined in with government departments.Reform of the procurement policy has improved the performance of bidding doors, which has benefited leading enterprises in office supplies.The increase in the office industry mainly comes from: 1) Centralized state-owned enterprise office procurement is gradually being liberalized; 2) Categories are gradually expanding.The company’s office supplies business focuses on the enterprise-level market and maintains rapid growth, accounting for more than 90% of the company’s revenue. We believe that the company’s office supplies business has a variety of advantages: 1) More categories, can provide office stationery, office equipment, labor insuranceSupplies, MRO, employee benefits and other categories, and the company increased the research and development of smart office equipment to meet customer needs; 2) strong supply chain service capabilities: integrated supplier model to improve procurement bargaining power, logistics system covering the country, offline channelsIntegration 北京桑拿会所 and diversification, rich and efficient e-commerce channel interfaces; 3) The company focuses on large customers, has abundant customer resources and huge customer expansion space, which can guarantee the company’s performance growth.  Demand for cloud video business continues to grow.As the domestic cloud computing industry chain continues to mature, the demand for cloud video conferencing for government and enterprise customers continues to grow; the company plans to deploy cloud video business to build an enterprise-level office service platform of “hardware + software + services”.The company’s existing cloud video business has a leading market share, possesses core technologies in the cloud video field, and continues to expand product development.The main growth points of the company’s cloud video business in the future 武汉夜生活网 are: 1) increase research and development efforts to consolidate the leading edge of the cloud video business; 2) lay out the PaaS business to meet the individual needs of large government and enterprise customers; 3) segment the market and develop smart party building, Smart education and other vertical business lines.  Earnings forecasts and investment advice.It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.38 yuan, 0.51 yuan, 0.64, corresponding to PE is 35 times, 26 times and 21 times.Considering that the company is located in the rapid expansion period of office collection, the industry has a good track, and its competitive advantage is outstanding, maintaining the “Buy” rating.  Risk warning: the risk of intensified market competition; the risk of falling profit margins; the risk of lower than expected cash flow recovery.

Several Misunderstandings of China’s Economic Analysis and Why the Economy Is Better Than Pessimistic Expectations

Several Misunderstandings of China’s Economic Analysis and Why the Economy Is Better Than Pessimistic 南京夜生活网 Expectations

Several Misunderstandings in China’s Economic Analysis-Also on Why the Economy Is Better Than Pessimistic Expectations!

(Haitong Macro Weekly Communication and Thinking No. 347, Jiang Chao, etc.) Summary In the past long period, the trend of China’s economy has become the focus of market attention.

In the end, is China’s economy continuing to gradually progress or is it building a bottom and stabilizing?

To accurately analyze China’s economic trends, you need to understand several common misunderstandings in economic analysis.

  First, the use of period indicators to judge the economy In the recently released indicators, the main causes of economic transformation are two data: first, the rate of GDP growth, which changed to 6% in the third quarter, hitting a new low of nearly 30 years; the other is industrial added valueTen-year growth rate, replacing 4 in October.

7%, the second lowest value in the year, and the second lowest value since March 2009.

  Based on the new low GDP growth rate in the third quarter and the replacement of the industrial growth rate in October, a natural measure is that the Chinese economy is still continuing to replace, and it is difficult to bottom out in the fourth quarter.

  China looks at half a year, the United States looks at the chain.

  However, at present, several important indicators that we are used to judge China’s economic situation, whether it is GDP growth or industrial growth, are actually data.

  In the analysis of the US economy, indicators such as GDP growth rate are also used, but the United States announced the quarter-on-quarter growth rate after seasonal adjustment.

For example, in the third quarter of this year, US GDP increased by 2 from the previous year.

1%, US retail sales in October this year increased by 0.

3%.

The US market is also paying more attention to the quarter-on-quarter growth rate, and is less concerned about the multi-year growth rate.

  The past is reflected in advance, and the present is reflected sequentially.

  The reason why mature markets care more about MoM is that MoM is more accurate.

  Theoretically, the annual growth rate is the ratio of the same period of this year to the same period of last year, and the sequential growth rate is the ratio of the current period to the previous period, resulting in data equal to the occupants of multiple previous sequential growth rates.

For example, China ‘s GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 6%, while the GDP growth rates in the four quarters from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 19 were 1 quarter-on-quarter.

5%, 1.

4%, 1.

6%, 1.

5%, the product of the next four items of ring growth is actually equal to the previous multiple growth.

  It can be found that the previous data contains too much past information.

Behind the 6% drop in China ‘s GDP growth rate in the third quarter of this year, both the contribution from the third quarter of this year ‘s GDP growth rate and the past three quarters ‘GDP growth rate may have contributed, and the contributions from the last three may increase.

  In fact, this can explain why in the US market everyone cares more about the MoM data, because only MoM growth is the latest change and is the best description of the status quo.

  The MoM data is not bad.

  In China, since the Bureau of Statistics has been publishing GDP and industrial growth rates for many years in the past, everyone is also used to using them to represent the current state of the economy.

But in fact, since 2011, the Bureau of Statistics has announced the four-month data of GDP, industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail packaging of social consumer goods, but everyone is not used to it.

Looking at the current MoM data, the economy is not as bad as the previous data.

  First, from the point of view of the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of GDP, the growth rate in the third quarter of this year was 1.

5%, although it was slightly lower than 1 in the second quarter.

6%, but better than 1 in the first quarter.

4%, compared with 1 in 4Q18.

5% was basically flat.

In other words, from the point of view of the chain, the worst time of the year is the first quarter, not the third quarter.

  In essence, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the three indicators of industry, consumption, and investment is observed. Although all three have declined in October this year, only the quarter-on-quarter growth rate has replaced 0.

The lowest point of the year was 17%; the growth rate of consumption was zero.

46%, investment growth rate is 0.4%, both of which are not too badly ranked in each month of the year.

  And just announced in November, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.

2%, the second highest value during the year.

The manufacturing PMI is also a chain index, which is in the expansion range above 50%, which means that the industrial chain growth rate in November is also expected to improve significantly.

  Therefore, although the GDP growth rate in the third quarter hit a record low, and the 10-month growth rate of industry, consumption, and investment also replaced the lows near the year, it was not possible to transform the economy and replace it because of multiple economic indicators.The MoM indicator is not bad, and it has improved, which means that the worst short-term economy may have passed.

  Second, the use of industrial data to represent economic industries cannot represent China.

  The Bureau of Statistics releases economic data every month, but the most important GDP data is released quarterly. The economic data released every month is mainly the growth rate of industry, consumption, investment and import and export, of which the former is productionIndicators, the last three are demand indicators.

The GDP data released by China is actually based on the production law, so everyone is accustomed to using industrial growth to represent monthly economic performance.

  Among the indicators on industrial operation announced in November, the growth rate of industrial added value reached 4 in October.

The second lowest value of the year was 7%, and the decline in profit growth of industrial enterprises in October also expanded to 9.

9%, the second largest drop in the year.

As many indicators have achieved the high degree of industrial growth, many people naturally interpret it as a noticeable slowdown in China’s economy in October.

  But think about it carefully. Traditionally, industry is actually steel, coal, cement and other products. Can these still represent our current life?

For example, everyone usually uses mobile phones, but the chips of mobile phones are all nano-level, so there is no need for so much steel.

We use mobile phones to chat, estimate classes online, read books, shop, shop online information, and increase express delivery in our lives. Both network services and express delivery belong to the service industry.

  The data actually proves this. As early as 2013, the proportion of China’s service industry has officially exceeded that of the secondary industry.

According to the latest revised GDP data for 2018, China’s service sector accounted for 53.

3%, while the secondary industry accounted for 39.

7%, of which industry accounted for only 33.

2%.

  It can be seen that, as the proportion of industry is far lower than that of the service industry, and industrial indicators have become increasingly unrepresentative, using industrial deceleration to promote the deceleration of China’s economic growth actually has serious deviations.

  Power data is more comprehensive.

  Why don’t you use data from the service industry?

Because in the past China’s service industry only had quarterly data and lacked monthly high-frequency data indicators, everyone used to use industrial growth to represent everything.

But in fact, since 17 years, the Bureau of Statistics has started to release monthly service industry production indexes.

  The production of the service industry in October 19 increased by 6 per year.

6%, down by 0 from September.

1%, but higher than 6 in July and August.

3% and 6.

4%.

  But whether it is the growth rate of the industry or the growth rate of the service industry, any one used to represent the economy has considerable problems.

  In fact, there is a very comprehensive data, that is, electricity data, including power generation and power consumption.

And because the power is difficult to store, the growth rate of electricity consumption is actually very close to the growth rate of power generation.

Since the above industrial production requires electricity and the service industry also needs electricity, the electricity data reflects the economic situation much more accurately than the industrial or service industry data.

  The growth rate of power consumption in September and October of this year was 4 respectively.

4% and 5%, and the average growth rate of electricity consumption this year is 4.

4%, which means that the electricity consumption in the past two months should be flat or even slightly better than the integrated average.

In fact, judging from the growth rate of electricity consumption, the worst this year is May and July.

  Judging from the growth rate of power generation, September and October this year were 4 respectively.

7% and 4%, both higher than the average growth rate of power generation since this year3.1%, which indicates that the power generation situation in the past two months is also better than the ten-year average.

From the perspective of the growth rate of coal consumption that we monitor, November’s performance is also very good, which means that there is a good probability that the growth rate of power generation in November is also good.

  The growth rate of power generation reflects that the worst time of the year is also in May and July, and there have been significant improvements for three consecutive months since September. This is actually the same as the economic duration shown by the industrial growth rate.completely different.

  Third, replacing financial financing with financial indicators affects the future economy.

  After all the data released in October, another factor that triggered market growth was the substitution of social finance growth.

The total amount of supplementary social financing in October was only 618.9 billion yuan, a decrease of more than 118.5 billion yuan; the overall growth rate of total social financing in October increased from 10.

8% interest rate 10.

7%.

Some people worry that the decrease in financing growth also confirms the downward pressure on the economy from the side.

  It is true that the economy cannot operate without money, so the replacement of the growth rate of money financing is certainly not good news for the economy.

But after all, money financing is not the same as the economy itself, so the growth rate of money financing cannot be directly replaced by economic replacement.

  An important reason is that due to the time lag from financing from residential enterprises to consumption and investment behavior, the growth rate of currency financing often leads economic changes.

Observing from China’s past data, the growth rate of social financing is ahead of economic changes by about two to three quarters.

  As financial deleveraging started in 17 years, the growth rate of social financing began to deviate sharply from the fourth quarter of 2017, and the economic growth rate began to decline significantly in the second quarter of 2018.

The decline in the growth rate of social financing continued until the 4th quarter of 2018. According to the lag of 2 to 3 quarters, this means that the economic fluctuations up to the 3rd quarter of this year are the lagging effects of the previous round of deleveraging.

  But from 19 years onwards, as the deleveraging turned into a stable lever, the growth rate of the social financing has stabilized and picked up, and it has picked up for two consecutive quarters.

If the social leadership of the economy is still established, it means that the economy is expected to stabilize and improve in the short term in the two quarters starting in the fourth quarter of 1919.

From the third quarter of 19th, the growth rate of social financing fluctuated again, and the transition to economic replacement should be after the second quarter of 2020.

  That is to say, the economic performance is derived from the growth rate of social finance, and the replacement will continue in the future, even for a short period of at least half a year or so, and then it will shift again.

  Also, consider the current 10.

The growth rate of 7% of social financing is still higher than 9 at the end of last year.

9%, assuming that the relationship between social finance and economic growth remains stable, it means that unless the economic growth rate is replaced again after the second quarter of next year, it may not be lower than the 6% in the third quarter of this year.

  Financing structure is more important than scale.

  In fact, all financing can be divided into two categories, one is short-term financing, and the other is medium- and long-term financing.

Short-term financing is usually related to liquidity needs, while medium- and long-term financing is related to real needs such as investment and consumption.

This means that the impact of medium and long-term financing on the economy may be more important than social finance.

  We find that the most important change in the growth rate of social financing in recent months is short-term financing, while the performance of medium- and long-term financing is stable.

In particular, corporate long-term loans have stabilized and recovered for three consecutive months since August, which means that the investment needs of the corporate sector may have started to improve.

  Recently, the Ministry of Finance has issued a special debt quota of 1 trillion yuan for local governments in advance, which actually supplements the whole society’s medium- and long-term financing, leading to the underpinning of infrastructure investment and economic stabilization.

  Fourth, using demographic indicators to forecast the economy An important reason for pessimistic expectations about the Chinese economy is the decline in birth rates.

  In economics, people aged 15-65 are usually considered working age.

According to the 6 census data, China’s post-80s generation is about 2.

2 billion, about 1 after 90.

8 billion, and only 1 after 00.

5 billion.

  In fact, around 2015, when the working-age population was reached, the labor force population in China experienced a negative growth.

  According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, China ‘s birth rate is still declining. Does n’t that mean the future of China ‘s economy is bleak?

  Modern growth stems from technological progress.

  To understand the effect of population on economic growth, it does not prevent us from reviewing the history of human economic development.

  In fact, until the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the global population continued to grow slowly, and economic growth grew extremely slowly.The average annual GDP growth rate is vertical. From 1 AD to 1000 AD, the average annual global GDP growth rate was only about 0.

01%, from 1000 AD to 1700 AD, the average annual GDP growth rate was only 0.

2%.

And even the slightest slight increase is almost entirely due to population growth, and there is almost no big change in per capita GDP.

  After the outbreak of the Industrial Revolution, the global economy began to accelerate significantly.

From 1700 to 1820, the average annual growth rate of GDP rose to zero.

5%, rose to 0 from 1820 to 1870.

9%, rising from 2870 to 2% from 1870 to 1900, and 3% after 1900.

  And only after the Industrial Revolution did global per capita GDP increase significantly.

From 1700 to 1820, the average annual growth rate of per capita GDP rose to zero.

1%, rose to 0 from 1820 to 1870.

5%, rose from 1870 to 1900.

2%, and reached 1 after 1900.

5%.

  That is to say, it is the emergence of the technological revolution that has brought about significant economic growth, and before that the global economy remained stagnant for a long time.

This actually tells us that population growth is helpful for economic growth, but it is not actually a decisive factor.

  Judging from the history of China’s economic development, the growth from 1 AD to 1600 almost stagnated for a long time, and it started to appear zero after 1600.

The increase is about 5%, but almost all comes from population growth.

Only after the founding of New China did GDP growth reach a global average growth rate of more than 2%.

After the reform and opening up, GDP growth exceeded 8%.

  The reason is that, whether in the feudal society or the semi-colonial era, China’s economy was mainly agricultural, and the efficiency of the population could not be improved.

Only after the founding of the People’s Republic of China and after the reform and opening up, through the vigorous development of industry, the introduction of advanced overseas technology, and the improvement of the population’s efficiency, did the economy develop rapidly.

  Improve the quality of the population and embrace the bonus of engineers.

  Going back to the original question, it is true that China’s birth rate has fallen sharply, but have you ever wondered why it has fallen?

Many people simply attribute it to the family planning policy and think that it is sufficient to fully liberalize the family planning policy.

However, in fact, the full second child was released as early as 2016. In fact, it is basically equivalent to the release of the family planning policy, but the birth rate is still falling, indicating that it is not a policy limitation and there are other reasons.

  We have found that the initial cause of the decline in fertility is actually an increase in child support costs.

China’s per capita GDP has reached 10,000 US dollars, which is about to cross the 1 proposed by the World Bank.

Ranked $ 20,000 in high-income countries worldwide.

At that time, after Japan’s and South Korea’s per capita GDP reached 10,000 US dollars, its birth rate also dropped sharply to about 10 ‰, similar to what we have now.

  However, after entering the 10,000-dollar door cloud, Japan and South Korea have maintained a medium-speed growth of about 4-5% for 10 years.In fact, it is not relying on more people, but the continuous improvement of population quality, which is reflected in per capitaImproved education.

Because the rising cost of support actually means an increase in the quality of the population.

  This is actually a phenomenon that is currently happening in China.

Although China’s birth rate has fallen, the number of college graduates we graduate each year has reached 12 million, compared with less than 1 million 20 years ago.

At present, the average education period of all Chinese people is about 9 years, which is equivalent to a junior high school graduate.

However, if the number of graduates of 12 million college students is maintained each year, after 10 years, China’s per capita education period will be close to 12 years, which is equivalent to a high school graduate. The annual education level will increase by about 2%. This is the bonus for the improvement of population quality.That’s the engineer bonus.

  It is just that the shift of the dividend from shifting the number of people to the dividend of engineers requires Chinese companies to change their development model, from simple labor-intensive to technology-intensive, and to relying on R & D, innovation and development.

This is exactly the change that is currently taking place. China ‘s R & D intensity has exceeded 2%. The growth rate of R & D expenditure of A-share companies has remained above 20% for three consecutive years, and the outbreak of trade frictions has exacerbated this trend. This shows thatChinese companies are transitioning to R & D and innovation, but they can actually take advantage of the engineer’s bonus.

  To sum up, the current market has a view that based on the decline in China ‘s birth rate, linearly extrapolate the long-term accumulation of China ‘s economic growth, and then reduce the growth rate of financing and industrial growth, so that China ‘s economic growth continues to decline.evidence.

We believe that this simple logic ignores changes in China’s population quality and technology, as well as changes in financing structure and economic structure. The real Chinese economy is actually better than many people’s pessimistic expectations.  I. Economy: PMI is back online 1) Manufacturing PMI is back online.

In November, the national manufacturing PMI returned to 50 online.

2%, an obvious rise in the earlier 10 months, a new high in 4 months, and for the first time in the year exceeded the level of the same period in 18 years.

In the main sub-items, demand and production both strengthened, prices fell, and inventory improved.

In terms of scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises has rebounded, and the PMI of large enterprises is back online.

  2) Demand and production both strengthened.

The new orders index rose to 51 in November.

3%, transferred from offline to online, hitting a new high since May and surpassing the level of the same period in 18 years, pointing to the expansion of domestic demand, the index of new export orders rose to 48 in November.

8%, a new high since May. Due to factors such as the increase in overseas orders for Christmas, external demand has improved simultaneously.

The production index rebounded to 52 in November.

6%, a new high since April, confirming a 16% increase in coal consumption in power generation in November.

6%, still at a high level during the year, points to the strengthening of industrial production.

  3) Prices have fallen and inventory has improved.

The purchase price index in November was slightly higher than 49%, and the ex-factory price index fell to 47 at the same time.

3%. Since November, coal prices have fallen, steel prices have rebounded, and oil prices have risen slightly. It is predicted that the PPI will rise by 0 in November.

1%, the annual decline narrowed to 1.

3%.

The raw material inventory index rose to 47 in November.

8%, the finished goods inventory index fell to 46.

At 4%, both demand and production have strengthened, which has improved inventory conditions.

  4) The foundation is stable and can be expected.

In November, the manufacturing PMI ended its 6-month offline operation and returned to the online market. The averages in October and November also significantly exceeded the third-quarter average, and the supply and demand indicators rebounded by item.

The recent Stability Committee meeting proposed greater counter-cyclical adjustments. The Ministry of Finance issued a 1 trillion new special debt limit ahead of schedule, reflecting the policy measures to support the economy, and the dawn of economic stability has now arrived!

  Second, prices: fight against rising and fall 1) pig prices continue to fall.

Last week pork prices fell by 8 from the previous month.

6%, a sharp decline in two consecutive weeks, the price of eggs and poultry also fell, and the overall price of food fell by 3%.

  2) CPI surged and fell.

Since November, pig prices have risen first and then decreased until the current November price of edible agricultural products increased by the Ministry of Commerce.

8%, CPI food prices are expected to increase 2% in November, CPI rose to 4 in November.

5%.

However, due to the decline in pig prices in recent weeks, the CPI is expected to replace 3 in 12 months.

9%.

  3) PPI decline narrowed.

Since November, coal prices have fallen, steel prices have rebounded, and oil prices have risen slightly.

Eventually, the port futures raw materials price increased by 0 in November.

1%, PPI is expected to rise 0 in November.

1%, the decline in PPI in November narrowed to 1.

3%, the decline in PPI in December is expected to continue to narrow to zero.

1%.

  4) Inflation surged and fell.Since entering November, pig prices have dropped significantly after the surge, indicating that CPI is expected to decline significantly in December.

In general, the prices of industrial products in November and December continued to rise month-on-month, and with the low base effect of the same period last year, the decline in PPI continued to shrink significantly.

  3. Liquidity: Currency remains stable 1) Monetary interest rates have picked up.

Currency interest rates picked up last week, with the average R007 rising 11bp to 2.

77%, R001 mean uplink 10bp to 2.

3%.

DR007 uplink 6bp to 2.

55%, DR001 upstream 9bp to 2.

twenty three%.

  2) Anniversary withdraw currency.

Last week, the operation of the open market was temporarily suspended. The reverse repurchase expired and withdrew 300 billion yuan. This foreign deposit was due to withdraw 60 billion yuan, a total of 360 billion yuan.

  3) The exchange rate remains stable.

The US dollar index was flat last week, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar remained stable, and the average value of onshore and offshore RMB stabilized at 7.
.

03 or so.

  4) The currency remains stable.

Financial institutions exceeded interest rates in September 1.

8%, down by 0 from June.

2%.

In October, the reserve assets of financial institutions decreased by 800 billion yuan. We estimate that the over-reserve ratio of financial institutions dropped to 1 in October.

5%, at a low level this year.

The long-term growth since November has been basically balanced, meaning that the over-reserve ratio is still low.

Therefore, although the previous budget slightly reduced the reverse repurchase bidding interest rate by 5bp, the main purpose should be to prevent rising interest rates from hurting the economy by mistake, while expanding and maintaining austerity balance, which means that the overall monetary policy is still sound.

  4. Policy: New special debts are issued 1).

The Ministry of Finance recently issued a limit of 1 trillion U.S. dollars on some new special debts in 2020, accounting for the new special debt liabilities for the year 20192.

15 trillion 47%.

Various localities will implement the special bond quota as soon as possible to specific projects, and do a good job of issuing and using special bonds, early issuance and early use, to ensure that the use can be effective early next year, ensure the formation of physical workload, and an effective economic pull as soon as possible.

  2) State-owned enterprise supervision reform.

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has officially issued the “Implementation Opinions on Substantive Progress with the Goal of Managing Capital and Gradually Changing Asset Management Supervision Transformation” from key measures, main paths, support and guarantee dimensions to the basis of “capital management”.The work system for gradually transforming asset supervision.

This means that the reform of state-owned assets supervision is entering a new stage.

  3) Consumption tax reform is imminent.

China Business News reporter learned that the draft consultation draft of the consumption tax law is proposed to be published before the end of the year.

In the new round of fiscal and taxation system reform, consumption tax has always been the highlight of tax system reform, which has consolidated the institutional foundation for consumption tax legislation.

  V. Overseas: The US’s GDP rose to 2 in the third quarter.

1%.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the annualized rate of real GDP in the third quarter was revised up to 2.

1%, higher than the initial value of 1.

9%, and slightly higher than the second quarter growth rate2.

0%.

In the breakdown, consumption remains stable, but business investment remains weak.
  2) The Federal Reserve issues the Beige Book of Economics.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve ‘s economic Beige Book showed that the U.S. economy grew moderately from October to mid-November, consumption was stable, manufacturing slightly improved, overall employment remained tight, and pressure gradually increased, or the Fed would not change the current interest ratePolicy position.

  3) The core PCE in the United States was slightly affiliated in October.

On Wednesday, the United States announced that PCE increased 武汉夜生活网 by 1 in October.

3%, unchanged from the previous value, the core PCE has increased by 1 for many years.

6%, earlier value was 0.

1 average.

In addition, the US consumer personal spending rose by 0 in October from the previous month.

3%, higher than the previous value, but personal income increased zero from the previous month, less than the previous value and expectations.

  4) The CPI in the Eurozone rebounded slightly in November.

On Friday, the Eurozone ‘s Eurozone CPI preliminary value released in November increased by 1 year-on-year in November.

0%, higher than expected 0.

9% and previous value of 0.

7%; the initial value of the core reconciliation CPI is two years.

3%, higher than expected 1.

2%, and continued to rise for 3 consecutive months.

Wanhua Chemical (600309) Announcement Comments: Acquisition of Swedish International Chemicals will help improve global competitiveness; the orderly profit of the global MDI industry continues to return to the center

Wanhua Chemical (600309) Announcement Comments: Acquisition of Swedish International Chemicals will help improve global competitiveness; the orderly profit of the global MDI industry continues to return to the center

Event: Wanhua Chemical issued an announcement on the acquisition of 100% equity of Chematur Technologies AB (Swedish International Chemical) by its subsidiaries.

Wanhua 杭州桑拿网 Chemical (California) Holdings Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of a listed company overseas, acquired 100% shares of Chematur Technologies AB held by Jilin City Cornell Investment Group Co., Ltd. and Europe and America Energy Technology Co., Ltd.

This acquisition is a conditional acquisition. After the counterparty has completed certain obligations, the total purchase amount is approximately RMB9.

2.5 billion.

Maintain “Buy” investment rating.

The main international military technology research and development of Swedish international chemical industry, foreign technology licensing, engineering design related to technology licensing, technical consulting services, etc., owns MDI, TDI, hydrogen peroxide, biochemical and other related proprietary technologies.

This acquisition helps optimize the company’s R & D capabilities in Europe, and promotes and enhances the company’s global industry competition.

Wanhua Chemical is a rare global leader in the Chinese chemical industry that has mastered international cutting-edge manufacturing technology and has outstanding management advantages.

MDI is an oligopolistic market, which is difficult to build new equipment and has a long cycle. Wanhua relies on continuous research and development to achieve technological breakthroughs, and is committed to gradually achieving a leap in the 80-level leap, and build 40 US integrated factories to consolidate the world’s first-level.

The company’s C3 / C4 petrochemical plant runs smoothly, and the scale of LPG trade continues to expand; the 100-ton large ethylene plant under construction gradually enhances the advantages of the polyurethane sector and deepens the layout of the petrochemical industry chain.

Since 18 years, the company’s 7 polycarbonate, 30 tons of TDI, 8mm PMMA and other projects have been put into production. In the future, PC II, SAP, synthetic perfume, ADI, nylon 12 and other new projects will be successively launched, and product categories will be further diversified.The supporting and layout of the industrial chain has been further improved.

At the beginning of 19, the company completed its overall listing plan, integrated high-quality assets such as MDI, and improved its governance structure. It helped it to make great strides towards the global polyurethane leader, China’s important indicators and derivatives suppliers, and new material core suppliers.

Do we maintain the company 2019?
The EPS in 2021 will be 3.

99, 4.

28, 4.

The forecast of 77 maintains the investment rating of “Buy”.

Risk reminders: The global macro economy is less than expected, the risk of MDI technology diffusion, and the risk of large changes in product prices.

Huaneng International (600011): Thermal power faucet set off again, Q1 performance exceeded expectations by 114%

Huaneng International (600011): Thermal power faucet set off again, Q1 performance exceeded expectations by 114%

Event: On April 26, the company released the first quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 456 in Q1 of 2019.

52 ppm, a restatement of growth over the next decade5.

15%, achieving net profit attributable to the parent company 26.

56 ppm, an increase of 114 in ten years.

27%, Q1 revised ROE to 3.
.

14%, an increase of 1 each year.

52 submissions: Electricity tariffs continued to decline slightly, and non-electricity revenue increased and increased 29.

4% In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s Chinese territory completed 1,038 power generation.

3.9 billion kWh, a decrease of 0 per year.

45%; completed sales of 982.

5.5 billion kWh, a decrease of 0 per year.

06%; The average on-grid electricity price for Q1 in 2019 was 421.

87 yuan / MWh, a decrease of 0 per year.

40%.

Although the electricity price has dropped slightly, it can only be replaced by 17% by 16%. According to estimates, in Q1 2019, revenue from the electricity business was 357.

33 ppm, an increase of 0 every year last year.

4%.

The company’s Q1 operating income was 456.

52 ppm, after reducing the power generation business, the non-electricity business income was 99.

19 ‰, an increase of 22 per year.

53 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

4%, the company’s heating business may appear to grow significantly.

Gross profit margin increased by an average of 4.

82pp, coal costs may have a substantial reduction in Q1 2019 operating income increased by 5 per year.

15%, an increase of 23 per year.

9.6 billion, operating costs fall by 1 every year.

29 ppm, so the company’s gross margin is 18.

31%, an increase of 4 over the previous.

82 units.

Q1 company operating income increased by 23.

9.6 billion, of which power generation business increased by 1.

430,000 yuan, non-electricity business income increased by 2北京夜生活2.

5.3 billion, non-electricity business is mainly heating business, accounting for more than 95%.

The company’s non-electricity business had a gross profit margin of 10 in 2018.

5%, assuming the gross margin of Q1 in 19 increased to 30%, then the cost of non-electricity business income increased by about 15.

$ 7.7 billion, and the company ‘s overall operating costs are falling by 1 every year.

2.9 billion yuan.
In the case of other costs unchanged, according to estimates, the company’s Q1 standard coal price drop into the furnace is expected to fall by more than 100 yuan / ton.
The gearing ratio dropped to 73.

63%, index spending increased slightly 2.
.

At the end of 25 trillion at the end of March 2019, the company’s assets and liabilities supplemented 73.

63%, a slight decrease before the end of 2018, the company’s price reduction results gradually appeared.

Analyzing the company’s asset-liability structure, the company denied interest to replace 2390.

73 ppm, a decrease of 25 per year last year.

8.9 billion yuan, but the company’s expensed interest expense reached 27.

380,000 yuan, a slight increase over the ten years 2.

2.5 billion.

Earnings forecast and estimation: The company is expected to realize revenue of 1817 in 2019-2021.

2.3 billion, 1907.

3.2 billion and 2036.

2.6 billion, net profit attributable to mother 62.

3.1 billion, 84.

4 billion and 103.

92 ppm, EPS is 0.

40, 0.

54 and 0.

66 yuan, corresponding to PE is 16.

80, 12.

41 and 10.

08 times, corresponding to an index rate of 4.

17%, 5.

64% and 6.

95%.

Generally speaking, coal supply and demand have gradually decreased, and the coal price has returned to the green zone with a high degree of certainty. It is optimistic about the company’s reasonable repair of profitability due to the decline in coal prices and the increase in utilization hours in the future, as well as the high yield brought by high returns.Investment value.
Risk reminder: coal prices rise sharply, the risk of lowering electricity prices, downstream demand is lower than expected

Smart Energy (600869) Annual Quarterly Review: The main business continues to pick up and the lithium battery business needs improvement

Smart Energy (600869) Annual Quarterly Review: The main business continues to pick up and the lithium battery business needs improvement

Key financial report data In 2018, the company’s operating income increased by 1.

46% to 175.

1.2 billion, net profit attributable to mothers increases by 1 every year.

97 times to 1.

5.2 billion yuan, achieving EPS 0.

0684 yuan; in the first quarter of 2019, operating income fell by 15 year-on-year.

28% to 28.

9.4 billion, a ten-year increase in net profit attributable to mothers.

11% to 0.

97.6 billion, achieving EPS 0.

0359 yuan.

Performance 杭州桑拿 is in line with expectations.

Main points of investment The main business continued to pick up, accruing 1 in 2018.

92 million goodwill impairment In 2018, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin and net sales margin were 15 respectively.

45% and 1.

07%, an increase of 2 per year.

59 and 0.

55 units.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s comprehensive gross margin and net sales margin were 19 respectively.

18% and 2.

81%, an increase of 4 per year.

72 and 0.

45 units.

In our opinion, the trend of the company’s main business recovery has been further confirmed.

The company conducted goodwill impairment tests on 7 subsidiaries, 3 of which were not impaired, and the other 4 (Shengda Electric, Mizuki Yuanhua, Aineng Power, Far East Foster) totaled 1.

The 92 trillion goodwill impairment 杭州桑拿 resulted in an increase in asset impairment losses by 1.

61 times to 3.

7.7 billion.

Lithium battery business suffered from the impact of the new energy vehicle’s replenishing downhill, which hindered Far East Foster, a subsidiary of the main power and energy storage battery, in 2018, achieving revenue under consolidated caliber10.

65 trillion, expected 0.

7.4 billion.

The corresponding “energy storage equipment” sub-item in the main business achieved revenue of 10 in 2018.

62 trillion, down 24 a year.

65%; gross profit margin 10.

55%, a decrease of 9 per year.

54 units.

In our view, the subsidy of new energy vehicles subsided, the relative overcapacity of power batteries, and intensified market competition, which caused a certain impact on the lithium battery business.

The company cooperates with Jiangling, Zotye and other new energy vehicle companies to provide stable cooperation. It has the manufacturing capacity of new 21700 ternary single cell, and also started the industrialization projects of soft packs and rectangular aluminum shell batteries.We believe that appropriately diversified battery types can help enhance market competitiveness.

We maintain the “overweight” rating, we expect that 2019?
In 2021, the company will realize EPS 0 under the current share capital.

18 yuan, 0.

22 yuan, 0.

24 yuan, corresponding to 28.

4, 23.

4, 21.

1x P / E.

Risks suggest that the power battery industry is fiercely competitive, and the price reduction may exceed expectations; the future production capacity of new battery industrialization projects may be lower than expected; and the cost and expense control may not meet expectations.

Yiqi Buxue Yangxue Anshen Recommended Longan Raw Sun Ginseng Claypot Chicken

Yiqi Buxue Yangxue Anshen Recommended Longan Raw Sun Ginseng Claypot Chicken
推荐:广东省中医院临床营养科龙眼生晒参 煲乌鸡主要功效:益气补虚、养血安神推荐人群:手脚不暖、易疲劳、因气血亏虚所致的记忆力下降、失眠等症.Materials: 10-20 grams of raw ginseng (sliced), 20 grams of longan, 10 grams of Chinese wolfberry, half black chicken, 100 grams of lean meat, and appropriate amount of ginger (3 to 4 people).Cooking method: After slaughtering the black chicken, remove the hairs and viscera, wash and chop the pieces, and wash the pork with lean pig meat in cold water and simmer in water for future use. Add 2 liters of water to the pot and wash the remaining materials., Ginger slices, boiled with spare black chicken, pork lean meat, boil over high heat and boil for an hour, add seasoning salt, and drink soup and meat.Soup review: Ginseng has the effects of nourishing vitality, nourishing the spleen, nourishing the lungs and soothing the nerves, and it has many categories, such as mountain ginseng, raw sun ginseng, red ginseng, Korean ginseng, etc., which are easy to get angry or worry about being unhealthy.Those who have been supplemented can start with the raw sun ginseng or the ginseng must be tried first, and gradually transition.Longan is a good food therapy for nourishing the heart and blood, and it has a certain food therapy effect for qi and blood deficiency, palpitations and insomnia.Silky chickens are warm, have the effects of nourishing the liver and kidney, nourishing qi and nourishing blood, and paired with lean pig meat that nourish yin and moisturize, can increase the taste and level of soup flavor, and it is relatively easy to get angry.Coupled with Chinese wolfberry tonic liver and kidney, this soup is suitable for people with deficiency of qi and blood, liver and kidney deficiency, and people who often suffer from cold, warm hands and feet, dizziness, fatigue, fatigue, shortness of breath, insomnia, forgetfulness, etc.Good choice.However, it should be noted that people with hyperactivity of yin deficiency and yang should be avoided, otherwise symptoms may be aggravated.Beautiful soup Q: How do you adjust your diet if you have acne on your face?Extensive skin oils, clogged pores, and bacterial growth are the three main causes of acne. Daily it is recommended that you clean your face thoroughly with a cleansing milk that has a deep cleansing effect, while avoiding staying up late.For daily diet, try to avoid high-sugar foods such as sweet drinks, desserts, and cakes. Eat more fresh fruits and vegetables. People who are too hot can choose kelp, rice, melon soup, mung bean soup, Maogan Sydney pot pork lung, red bean kumbu soup, and so on.In 杭州夜生活 addition, the chronic inflammation of the skin will also promote or aggravate the growth of acne. Perilla oil, linseed oil and other edible oils with anti-inflammatory effects can be used daily. Marine fish can be appropriately increased, and less fat can be eaten.

Ordinary people (603883): stable performance growth is optimistic about long-term development

Ordinary people (603883): stable performance growth is optimistic about long-term development
Event: The company’s operating income in 2018 was approximately 94 after deducting non-net profit.700 million, 4.20,000 yuan, the annual growth rate is about 26.3%, 20.2%; 2019Q1 operating income, deducting non-net profit is about 27.300 million, 1.500 million US dollars, the annual growth rate is about 23.4%, 16%. The performance growth is stable and optimistic about long-term development.The company’s operating income in 2018 was approximately 94.70,000 yuan, an increase of about 26 in ten years.3%.Among them, pharmaceutical retail is about 84 trillion, with an annual increase of about 23.3%, the first is the annual increase of old stores and new openings, acquisitions and other incremental stores.During the period, the company added 919 direct-operating and M & A stores, an increase of approximately 31%, including 506 new direct-operating stores and 413 M & A stores.In addition, the company’s pharmaceutical wholesale business revenue is approximately 9.70,000 yuan, an increase of about 71 in ten years.4%, mainly due to the impact of mergers and acquisitions.The company’s non-net profit in 2018 was approximately 4.200 million US dollars, an annual increase of about 20%, exceeding the growth rate of revenue by about 6 percentage points, the specific analysis is as follows: 1) The company’s gross profit margin is about 35.2%, a decrease of about 0.One single, mainly due to changes in income structure, better control of drug procurement costs; 2) The period expense ratio is about 28.1%, a year of decline of about 0.The number of sales and management expenses increased by approximately 29% and 16%. If the impact of new depreciation is excluded, it will match the growth rate of income; however, the internal financial expenses will decrease by at least approximately 0 during the period.160,000 yuan, mainly due to the company’s increased capital investment in construction projects and bank deposit income increased.In a single quarter, the company’s 2019Q1 operating income, net of non-net profit, was approximately 27.300 million, 1.500 million US dollars, the annual growth rate is about 23.4% and 16%. In the first three quarters, 200 new direct-operating and M & A stores were 淡水桑拿网 newly added, of which 109 new stores were reduced by 70% each year. We believe that the company still maintains a rapid endogenous growth. The expansion of terminal pharmacies continued, and the effect of scale gradually emerged.1) The company is a national retail pharmacy leader and will benefit from industry transformation.The company covers 19 provinces nationwide and is the leading retail drugstore nationwide.With the increase of the right to speak in each region, the bargaining power of the upstream has been improved, and its profitability has been improved.With the trend of “drug division” and “graded diagnosis and treatment”, the retail pharmacies’ business that can be developed in the future will continue to be rich, and space can be imagined in the fields of prescription drugs, Internet medical care, and primary medical services.We believe that pharmacy terminals are only scarce, and the company has a national layout with outstanding first-mover advantages; 2) Until the end of March 2019, the company had 3466 directly operated stores and 749 franchised stores.In 2019Q1, 200 new direct sales and M & A stores were added, of which 109 were new direct sales stores and 91 new M & A stores were added.The new stores are mainly concentrated in the core areas of East China and Central China, which helps to quickly enter the profit stage.The newly opened stores follow the guidelines of “near hospitals and enter towns” to carry out detailed planning for key development provinces to achieve strong performance growth in hospital-side stores and county markets; 3) Member sales and DTP pharmacies are the company’s characteristics.Company sales accounted for about 74.9%, leading in the highest scale, will drive continued steady growth in performance.In 2018, the company’s DTP business contributed revenue of approximately 5.20,000 yuan, an annual increase of more than 80%.At the end of the period, there were 80 DTP pharmacies. The number of drugs in the fields of anti-tumor, hepatitis C, and autoimmune diseases has expanded to 343, and the number has doubled. 4) The staff has promoted performance growth expectations.The employee’s incentive coverage has penetrated this time and the assessment goals are high.Based on 2018, the profit growth rate of 2019-2021 is ≥20%, ≥45%, and ≥70%.If converted into annual profit growth rates, they are ≥20% and ≥20, respectively.8%, ≥17.2%, corresponding to an average growth rate of ≥19 in three years.3%, higher than the level of profit growth in 2018.Equity incentives are used to motivate employees’ interests. After the profit has gradually improved, performance may explode. Profit forecast and rating.The EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.90 yuan, 2.36 yuan, 2.94 yuan, corresponding to PE is 29 times, 23 times, 19 times.The company’s pharmacy has a positive layout, fair incentives to restrict employees’ interests, and after the profit has gradually improved, it may usher in a burst of performance. Risk warning: the speed of new stores may be lower than expected, the profitability of new stores may be lower than expected, and other risks.

Xugong Machinery (000425): Construction of marketing system plus products hard strength cranes and pile workers work together

Xugong Machinery (000425): Construction of marketing system plus products hard strength cranes and pile workers work together

This report reads: It is expected that the high prosperity of construction machinery will continue in January and February, and the strong competitiveness of XCMG’s core products will continue to be verified. The marketing system will have significant benefits and the target price will be raised to 7.

92 yuan, increase holdings.

Investment Highlights: Conclusion: Excavator and crane industry sales exceeded expectations 天津夜网 in December, and the boom is expected to continue in January and February.

In December, the share of XCMG cranes continued to pick up. Significant orders for pile workers were signed to maintain the EPS of 2019 to 0.

51/0.

66/0.

7 yuan, based on the strong competitiveness of XCMG ‘s core products, has been continuously verified, and the performance of the marketing system has been significantly improved. The target price has been raised to 7.

92 yuan, corresponding to 12 times PE in 2020.

The sales of the excavator and crane industry exceeded expectations in December, and the high boom is expected to continue in January and February.

Excavator sales in December 2.

20,000 units, an increase of 25.

8%, of which domestic exports increased by 20.

7%, 66.

8%, more than expected; according to research, crane sales growth in December exceeded the excavator, also exceeded expectations.

The counter-cyclical adjustment will be strengthened, and the level will be reduced to 0 in early 2020.

5pct; special debt issuance accelerated, and as of January 7, the new issuance in January has exceeded 500 billion, an earlier period of 2019.

In December, the crane operating rate and the hours of startup continued to increase. Combined with the manufacturer’s order guidelines, it is expected that the high boom of construction machinery in January and February will continue.

XCMG cranes continued to pick up, and the development of pile workers was better than expected.

According to research, XCMG ‘s truck cranes outpaced the industry in December, and the scope of expansion is expected to further increase (December 44, 2018).

2%).

On December 22, Xugong’s pile workers newly signed 655 units with a value of nearly 30 billion yuan (approximately 60 billion in revenue in 2019), most of which were locked in 20Q1, and the industry growth in 2020 was raised by 5-10%. Pile driving machinery was better than expected.

The expansion and improvement of excavators and cranes highlights the product strength, and the construction of the marketing system has achieved remarkable results.

XCMG excavator sales increased by 62% in December, far exceeding the industry, and its single-month market share increased to 15.

2%, steadily ranking second in the domestic brand, some large tonnage first in the country, coupled with the rebound in the market share of fist products crane, highlighting the strong competitiveness of the product.

And since the second half of 2019, XCMG has greatly improved the construction of its marketing system, especially the crane distribution system and agent incentive mechanism. It will probably improve in 2020.

Risk warning: industry competition is intensifying, and real estate investment growth is maximized.