Hebei Xuanong (000923): Standard Ore Faucet Ready
Ore prices: supply and demand optimization to meet the inflection point, the industrial chain’s discourse power prevailed in the early stages of winning dividends, and so far, affected by the Vale mine disaster in Brazil and the hurricane in Australia, the global iron ore supply has objectively contracted, which has also caused subjective feedback from the main production bodies.The production / sales volume indicators for 2019 have been lowered to varying degrees.
If resumption is not considered for the time being, it can be postponed until 2019 to reduce iron ore supply by at least 6600 seconds, and the shipment data of Australia and Pakistan in the first five months has dropped (to -3.
13%) It can be proved that gradually, the increase in domestic and foreign production can only be hedged, and the reduction cannot be repeated completely, which makes it a shortage of foundation.
In addition, ore demand has been rising due to pig iron production (+8 in May).
9%), while continuing to flourish.
Under the optimization of supply and demand, port inventories have decreased by 3278 to a maximum of 1.
1.6 billion tons, the lowest level since January 2017.
Due to the high output of steel, the gap will continue to extend, supplementing the advantages of resource concentration, the strong segment of the ore industry chain will not be changed in stages, and the ore price may continue to be strong.
Hebei Xuanong: Specifications + scale, fully benefiting from the increase in the price of mineral resources. The 厦门夜网 resource platform company implemented asset reorganization in 2017 and formed four major business units of copper, vermiculite, iron ore, and machinery. Among them, except the mechanical business is internal, the other threeThese businesses belong to PC (South Africa Parabola Copper Company, the company holds 59.
The business volume of stone and machinery is relatively small, and the performance is largely offset, while the revenues of copper and iron ore account for 24% and 60%, respectively, and are absolute main businesses.
1) Copper: The copper rod market in South Africa has a capacity of about 8 inches. PC copper rods account for more than 50% of the local market share. It is expected that the first phase of the copper mine will be closed at the end of this year, and the second phase of the copper mine will be 杭州桑拿网 officially put into operation.The expected production capacity will be reached by the end of 2021, and the production target of 7 expected coppers will be achieved in 2022. The production operation will continue until 2030.
After the new and old production capacity is realized this year, the performance of copper units may be significantly improved.
2) Iron ore: Magnetite is an associated ore separated during the processing of copper ore.
After early mining, the stock of magnetite is about 1.
800 million tons, iron content is about 56%, simple magnetic separation can improve the grade to 64.
5%, the highest mining cost, the full cost or not more than 50 US dollars / ton.
At the same time, underground production is still replenishing, and it is expected to reach an annual output of 1500 in the future, which will be settled in US dollars and mainly shipped to China for sales.
If the USD to RMB exchange rate remains at 6.
7, Platts maintains 90 US dollars / ton, and the iron ore business contributes to the profitability of the mother.
0.8 billion yuan.
Reasonable estimates: Is there a low estimate for the current iron ore business?
Since the revenue and profit of the vermiculite and machinery business are relatively small, and the performance is largely offset by hedging, the valuation of the two iron ore and copper businesses is mainly measured next.
For copper mines, we use Jiangxi Copper as the reference object, and its market value of copper per ton reaches 3.
69 million / ton, considering that the second-stage copper mine will be put into production within the year or officially, and the output is calculated at 5 a year, then the corresponding market value of the copper mine may reach 18.
About 4.3 billion.
The company’s current market value is 121.
410,000 yuan, after deducting the market value of the copper business, that is, the market value of the remaining business (iron ore + vermiculite + machinery) should be 102.
9.8 billion, due to the small impact of vermiculite and mechanical properties, it is assumed that the remaining market value can be equal to the market value of iron ore business.
Consider iron ore profit contribution or accessibility.
08 ppm, so the company’s iron ore business currently gives only an estimated PE of 9.
About 3 times, significantly lower than the estimated levels of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Vale (the current PE of the three is 9 respectively.
4. The average value since September 2011 is 12.
It is expected that the company’s EPS in 2019 and 2020 will be 1.
02 yuan, 1.
27 yuan, given a “buy” rating.
Risk Warning: 1.
Large fluctuations in mineral prices; 2.
The second-phase project was put into operation less than expected.