Wanhua Chemical (600309): The results of the first quarter report reached the expected MDI listing price and continued to rise
Event: The company released a quarterly report: it achieved operating income of 159 in the first quarter of 2019.
$ 500 million, with a ten-year average of 8.
3%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company.
9 trillion, 45 before New Year’s Eve.
9%; non-net profit attributable to mother 24.
2 megabits, at least 49 a year.
1%; realized profit 0.
The company released the May China MDI price announcement: China’s aggregate MDI distribution market listed price is 19,000 yuan / ton (up 1200 yuan / ton from April prices), and the direct sales market price is 19500 yuan / ton (up 1200 yuan from April prices/ Ton); pure MDI listing price of 27,200 yuan / ton (1,000 yuan / ton higher than the price in April).
Comments: 1. Both the revenue and net profit reported in January 2019 were mainly due to the apparent fall in MDI prices, but the prices rose all the way in the first half of 19, which is not pessimistic about the company’s MDI earnings.
In February 2019, the company completed the absorption and merger of Wanhua Chemical. After the consolidated financial report, the company’s sales revenue in the first quarter of 2019 changed by 8%.
3%, gross profit decreased by 28.
500 million US dollars, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 23 compared with the same period last year.
US $ 800 million, mainly due to the sharp decline in MDI prices of the main products over the same period last year.
Baichuan information data, 1Q19 / 1Q18 pure MDI price is 21254/32753 yuan / ton, the aggregate MDI price is 13,525 / 22753 yuan / ton, although pure MDI, aggregate MDI prices continue to fall 35.
6%, but this year’s price trend is all the way up. Wanhua announced the listing price in May. The pure MDI price was listed at 27200 yuan / ton in May. The aggregate MDI price has been raised from the initial 11,500 yuan / ton.To 19,500 yuan / ton.
The fall of China’s MDI prices from the high point of 2017-2018 is a return to the fundamentals of supply and demand. The aggregate adjustment of MDI price changes in the fourth quarter of 2018 did not have to be too pessimistic about the industry’s profit. The continued rebound of prices in 19 also reflected the leading role of a good supply layoutEnterprise’s ability to control prices.
At present, the market price of polymerized MDI is 17800-18000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of pure MDI is 24,000-25,000 yuan / ton.
In the second half of 2019, the market will be more complicated. Wanhua 武汉夜网论坛 Chemical’s existing MDI capacity will be increased by 80 through technological transformation, and costs will be degraded and increased. Therefore, even if the MDI price is adjusted slightly, Wanhua Chemical will ensure product profitability by reducing costs.Massive increase the company’s MDI business’s net profit level.
2. In the first quarter, the prices of petrochemical products fell more or less, and the fine chemicals and new materials business grew steadily.
Looking at the main products of the entire petrochemical industry chain, in the first quarter of 2019, the average price of Shandong propylene market was 7,527 yuan / ton, which was a 13% decrease month-on-month and a gradual decline7.
25%; the average market price of propylene oxide in East China is 10,405 yuan / ton, down 10 from the previous month.
7%杭州桑拿网, a decline of 16 per year.
4%; East China butanol market average price of 7075 yuan / ton, down 0 chain.
58%, falling by 2 every year.
23%; the average price of butyl acrylate in East China was 9,879 yuan / ton, down 4 from the previous month.
89%, an increase of 6 compared with the same period last year.
92%; Shandong MTBE market average price of 5564 yuan / ton, down 3 chain.
44%, a decline of 5 per year.
Report on the production of intermediates, fine chemicals and new materials of the company10.
47, sales 8.
In June, the income reached 15.
32 trillion, with revenue growing 41 per year.
The company’s main products include SAP, TPU, PC, PMMA, organic amines, ADI, water-based coatings and other products. Compared with the same period last year, the price has not changed much, but the production and sales in the first quarter of 2018 were 8 respectively.
63. Therefore, reporting potential production and sales growth is the number one priority for revenue and profit growth in this segment.
3. Maintain “Highly Recommended-A” investment rating.
The production capacity of Wanhua Yantai Industrial Park will be increased to 110 units / year, and the production capacity of Ningbo Industrial Park will be increased to 150 units / year. A total of 40 new MDI units and integrated supporting projects will be built in Louisiana, USA.
At this point, Wanhua will have production bases in three markets in Asia, the United States and Europe, to achieve layout.
The company’s 30-ton TDI, 5-minute / year MMA, and 8-ton / year PMMA will be put into production in 2019. The structure of multi-category products has been gradually improved, and integration and refinement strategies have been integrated. The execution of projects in the petrochemical field is reflected in C3 and C2Smooth progress of the industrial chain; Wanhua Chemical’s future growth path is very clear.
Wanhua Chemical absorbed and merged Wanhua Chemical through issuing new shares, and the integration of high-quality assets was completed.
We each simulated the possible adjustment of financial calculation indicators after the merger, and it is estimated that the total revenue of the company for 2019-2021 will be 4 respectively.
25 yuan, 4.
66 yuan, 5.
The company’s subsequent construction of several heavy-weight products has been smoothly advanced, maintaining the investment rating of “Highly Recommended-A” unchanged.
4. Risk warning.
The risk of the company’s MDI product prices falling sharply; the price of petroleum products falling sharply; the expected risks brought by the marketing of special chemical products;