Shandong Heda (002810): Performance slightly exceeds expectations Three quarterly report predicts high growth
Event: The company announced its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved revenue5.
32 ppm, an increase of 25 per year.
43%, net profit attributable to mothers is 80.45 million yuan, an increase of 151 per year.
4%, attributable to non-net profit of 84.02 million yuan, an annual increase of 169.
49%, net operating cash flow is 81.14 million yuan, an annual increase of 1534.
4385 yuan, ROE10.
And forecast the first three quarters of net profit attributable to the mother is 1.
1.4 billion, an increase of 80% -100% in ten years.
Comment: In the first and second quarters, the growth exceeded expectations, and the net profit of subsidiaries Hershey and Fuchuan Chemical continued to grow.
The results of the interim report were slightly higher than expected. Q2’s single-quarter profit hit a record high, operating cash flow increased significantly, and the degree of matching with net profit was high.
The main reason for the increase in performance is that the company continues to maintain a good operating condition, and orders for major products continue to increase.
Hershey’s subsidiary, which produces plant capsules, completed a net profit of 15.24 million yuan in 19H1, an increase of 48% annually, mainly due to the continuous growth in sales; Fuchuan Chemical, a subsidiary of the original trimethyl acetate manufacturer, completed a net profit of 24.98 million yuan in 19H1.The increase of 536% was mainly due to the cost reduction and product price increase due to the upgrading of production line technology.
2. The global demand for plant capsules is growing rapidly, and the company will continue to expand production and aspire to become a global leader.
Plant capsules have obvious performance advantages over animal gelatin capsules, but due to higher prices, the global penetration rate is currently only 10%, and is in a high-speed growth period. The annual output is about 150 billion capsules, and the annual demand growth rate is 20% -25%.
The company’s capacity of 3.5 billion tablets began to increase in 2016, and its sales volume increased rapidly from 500 million tablets in 2016 to 3.5 billion tablets in 2018. It is expected that the sales volume will increase rapidly to 15 billion tablets in the next two years, and more than 80% will be exported abroad.Downstream is mainly health care customers.
The company invested in 20181.
The technological transformation project of 5 billion plant capsules initiated by 07 million is planned to supplement 12 production lines. At present, 4 production lines are in full production, and the remaining 8 lines will be put into production in two batches in the first half of the year.
The company is the only company in the industry that integrates the plant capsule industry chain from upstream cellulose ethers. The cost is 30% lower than that of capsule companies that produce imported raw materials. It has obvious advantages in raw materials, equipment and process control.
In the future, the company will continue to expand the production of plant capsules to meet the constraints of the pursuit of productivity donors, and is determined to become a leader in the global plant capsule industry.
3. Leading domestic cellulose ether industry, pharmaceutical grade products will open up room for growth.
The company’s main products are HPMC-based non-ionic cellulose ethers, including 3.
39 initial building materials grade (3,900 tons of low-end production capacity in the Wangcun plant was shut down, and the output was more than 1,000 tons) and 0.
4 Initial pharmaceutical and food grade, has become the largest nano-cellulose ether industry, the highest technology, the most complete product line of leading enterprises.
The penetration rate of downstream ready-mixed mortar continues to increase, and traditional construction-grade products have maintained a slow growth; pharmaceutical-grade products due to the continuous expansion of downstream applications will open up room for industry growth.
The expansion of downstream plant capsules has increased the demand for pharmaceutical-grade products. There are only a few domestic companies that can produce pharmaceutical-grade products. The company controls more than 60% of the domestic raw material supply, and reached preliminary with India’s ACG, the second largest capsule manufacturerIntention of strategic cooperation, ACG will supply cellulose ether products for plant capsules in the future.
At the same time, the downstream pharmaceutical customers, Zhengda Tianqing, Jiangsu Deyuan Pharmaceutical and other related pharmaceutical products (the company supplies pharmaceutical excipients HPMC) have been 西安耍耍网 consistently evaluated by generic drugs. It is expected that the future sales of pharmaceutical products will continue to increase.
4. The competition pattern of trimethyl orthoacetate has changed drastically, and the rising price has brought about performance elasticity.
As an important chemical intermediate, trimethyl orthoacetate is widely blended with downstream products such as sucralose and methyl ester. The major domestic manufacturers include Weiming Tianyuan (capacity 5000 tons) and Yantai Fuchuan (Herda subsidiary,Production capacity of 5000 tons), due to the area is located in the chemical industry forbidden development zone, the deadline to relocate at the end of September 2018, there is no substantial progress in the relocation is still in production, resulting in short-term market supply constraints, the fourth 北京桑拿洗浴保健 quarter of 2018Starting price includes tax.
3 million / ton rose to the current 3.
3 million / ton, the price increased by more than 40%, because the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to ease in the short term, it is expected that the price may increase further.
Fuchuan Chemical’s 5,000 tons of trimethyl orthoacetate and 1,000 tons of double-fractured melamine have undergone process optimization and improvement. The product yield has increased. In 18 years, it has achieved 60 million in revenue and a net profit of -6.38 million. We expect that Fuchuan Chemical will achieve a net profit of 3,000 in 19 years.10,000-40 million yuan.
5. Maintain “Highly Recommended-A” investment rating.
We expect the company’s net profit to be 1 in 2019-2021.
4.3 billion / 1.
8.4 billion / 2.75 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.
44 yuan, corresponding to 18 for PE.
6 times, maintaining “strongly recommended-A” level.
6. Risk warning: the price of raw materials rises, the capacity digestion is less than expected, and the market promotion of plant capsules is unfavorable.