Liling mustard (002507) 19-year performance flash report quick review: 20-year pressure on performance is quite flexible
Event Fuling mustard announced the 2019 performance report, the company achieved operating income in 201919.
90 trillion, +3 for ten years.
93%, net profit attributable to mothers6.
05 ‰, at least -8.
Among them, 19Q4 achieved income 3.
85 ppm, +4 for ten years.
33%, net profit attributable to mother was 8,717.
910,000 yuan, ten years -37.
09%; EPS is 0.
The key points of investment channel improvement effect appeared, and income continued to pick up.
The company achieved operating income in 201919.
90 trillion, +3 for ten years.
93% (Q1: +3.
81%; Q2: +0.
56%; Q3 + 7.
64%; Q4: +4.
33%), revenue growth has picked up in the second half of the year, we expect the company to gradually release the channel management adjustment effect (sales offices from 34 fission 67, channel management is further refined), adding high channel inventory gradually digestionTo.
The growth rate of Q4 was slightly earlier than the growth rate of Q3 in Q3, which was mainly due to the company’s active control of issuance in order to further reduce inventory. At present, the average inventory of the company’s product channels is about 3-4 weeks. Out of stock in some regions, channel inventory is at a historical low point.
Channel expansion + base number impact, short-term performance under pressure.
The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in 20196.
0.5 billion, a year -8.
55% (Q1: +35.
15%; second season: -16.
18%; questions 3-6.
78%; fourth quarter: -37.
(09%), the maximum profit limit was mainly due to the continuous increase in the subsidy expenses of the channel in 19Q4, which 杭州夜网论坛 overlapped with the high base effect of the 18-year government subsidy amount.
The company’s fission channel policy of the company’s 19-year office required a large number of personnel to invest, and labor and supporting expenses are expected to increase, resulting in pressure on performance.
Among them, Q4 decreased significantly. We expect that the company’s control of goods will lead to a decrease in output and a decrease in production efficiency.
The company’s net profit in 2019 is 30.
42%, at least -4.
Short-term highlights: scale effects of production, marginal drop in labor costs, and performance flexibility.
In terms of production, the company started to fully use the green head raw materials in the new season in 19Q2, the price is about 790 yuan / ton, the latest purchase price of Fuling District in 20 years is about 800 yuan / ton, the cost price is basically flat; from the follow-up, 20 The annual revenue of the company is expected to achieve recovery growth driven by the sinking of the channel, and the scale of production will improve the gross profit margin.
In terms of expenses, the labor expenses are expected to have passed. It is expected that marginal changes in sales expenses in the future will increase the release of profit margins.
Long-term point of view: Expansion of production and products, price increases can be expected.
Capacity to be expanded: The company’s current capacity to be released includes the Fuling base.6 The initial crisp mouth production line has now entered the equipment commissioning stage.
Meishan base 5.
3 The initial mustard production line project has also been completed and is waiting for supporting construction.
Northeast production base 5 preliminary turnip project, located in the progress of infrastructure planning.
In the future, the company’s new production capacity in the main mustard, crispy series and small categories will be released and transformed. The company will also actively explore the category expansion. It will seek breakthroughs in the seasoning sauce field, and continue to find targets for food synergy, and there is considerable room for growth.
Channel re-optimization: The company began channel adjustments in early 19, optimized the execution structure of sales management, increased sales offices, and entered the refined channel management stage.
At present, the company has 1,200 junior first-tier dealers, penetrated into more than 1,000 county-level markets, and transferred channels for deep cultivation. In the future, while ensuring continued sinking, it will also break through new channels such as new retail, takeaway platforms, and group purchase and wholesale to helpRevenue growth.
Price increase can still be expected: the company’s current market share in the mustard industry continues to increase, not only the product pricing power, historically, on a rolling basis, the price of some products is basically increased every year, and it continues to contribute to the flexibility of performance.
At present, the company’s products have raw material advantages, the brand has a premium foundation, and mid- and long-term product price increases are still expected.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company is a leader in the mustard industry and has consolidated pricing rights. Under the circumstances of excessive price increases and overlapping channel adjustments, its performance has been under pressure.
We have revised our profit forecast based on the company’s performance forecast.
The company’s revenue is expected to be 22 in 2020-21.
1.8 billion (+11.
5.4 billion (+15.
1%), the EPS in 2020-21 is 0.
96 yuan (+25.
21 yuan (+26.
5%), corresponding to the closing price on February 27, 2020, which is estimated to be 29x and 23x in 2020-21, respectively.
We maintain the rating of “Prudent Overweight” and advise investors to pay more attention.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies, raw material costs increase, food safety issues, mergers and acquisitions fail